Recession spotting

Below I covered how to spot when a bubble is developing, now here's an easy way to spot if you are in a recession. Again, people with PhDs have likely studied this, but you can see a recession coming just by watching TV. No, not by paying attention to the news, but by watching the advertisements.

Now, during economic slowdowns companies selling consumer products still need to advertise their offerings or risk losing market share. But they still need to cut costs, so you will notice recycled TV ads. As in you will see an ad for Corona, but the ad is a year old, which during good times does not happen as much. By re-using old ads, the companies save on the production costs of new ads and since they have already been used, they know the ads are effective. Or at least I would assume they would only re-use effective ads.

I noticed this back during the 2001ish recession, and again last year. The first ad this time around that I clearly remember being recycled was one for AT&T's wireless division (I think it actually started under the Cingular brand name). Remember all those "more bars in more places ads?" Cute at first, but overtime have become tired. The one I recall being re-used was the one with the dad off on a business trip sending pictures of his trip back home to his wife and daughter, until the last picture is one from outside the house. Cute, but after the orignal run they moved on to new ads and I believe new campaigns, but then last year this ad with the dad made a come back. And I'm not the only one who has noticed the long run of the ad.

The other ads I've noticed of late is the old McDonald's Dollar Menu ad with the guy going around what looks like New York City with a dollar bill asking what he can get for a dollar. He gets a dry cleaning hangar/bag and a plastic palm tree and then becomes happy at McDonalds. Then there is Corona and there ad with the guy skipping his smartphone off into the ocean (side note: if you are in a Corona state of mind that apparently accompanies all Corona drinkers, why even take the phone on vacation let alone onto the beach?). And the latest one I have seen is from Lowes. Sure they have their new LowesT ad where they find creative ways to add a T at the end of the logo, but they have now begun re-airing the ad with the dad telling his son how good of a negotiator he is that he got free delivery and free installation and so on, the same things everyone gets at Lowes, and the same add from a while back.

So, watch for more, and in a few years if you see it happening again, watch out for an economic slowdown.