AM's Guide to My Universe

Recession spotting

2009-11-06T20:54:00.000-08:00

Below I covered how to spot when a bubble is developing, now here's an easy way to spot if you are in a recession. Again, people with PhDs have likely studied this, but you can see a recession coming just by watching TV. No, not by paying attention to the news, but by watching the advertisements.

Now, during economic slowdowns companies selling consumer products still need to advertise their offerings or risk losing market share. But they still need to cut costs, so you will notice recycled TV ads. As in you will see an ad for Corona, but the ad is a year old, which during good times does not happen as much. By re-using old ads, the companies save on the production costs of new ads and since they have already been used, they know the ads are effective. Or at least I would assume they would only re-use effective ads.

I noticed this back during the 2001ish recession, and again last year. The first ad this time around that I clearly remember being recycled was one for AT&T's wireless division (I think it actually started under the Cingular brand name). Remember all those "more bars in more places ads?" Cute at first, but overtime have become tired. The one I recall being re-used was the one with the dad off on a business trip sending pictures of his trip back home to his wife and daughter, until the last picture is one from outside the house. Cute, but after the orignal run they moved on to new ads and I believe new campaigns, but then last year this ad with the dad made a come back. And I'm not the only one who has noticed the long run of the ad.

The other ads I've noticed of late is the old McDonald's Dollar Menu ad with the guy going around what looks like New York City with a dollar bill asking what he can get for a dollar. He gets a dry cleaning hangar/bag and a plastic palm tree and then becomes happy at McDonalds. Then there is Corona and there ad with the guy skipping his smartphone off into the ocean (side note: if you are in a Corona state of mind that apparently accompanies all Corona drinkers, why even take the phone on vacation let alone onto the beach?). And the latest one I have seen is from Lowes. Sure they have their new LowesT ad where they find creative ways to add a T at the end of the logo, but they have now begun re-airing the ad with the dad telling his son how good of a negotiator he is that he got free delivery and free installation and so on, the same things everyone gets at Lowes, and the same add from a while back.

So, watch for more, and in a few years if you see it happening again, watch out for an economic slowdown.

Bubble economics

2009-10-23T23:56:00.000-07:00

Long overdue thought on how to spot a bubble in a market. Hopefully some economists with PhD have realized this and have published it somewhere with actual statistics.

You know a bubble is forming when: 1) Long-term financial/economic theories such as supply and demand are replaced by short-term greed. Or in other words, people ignore long-held financial maxims and react with greed instead of sound investment strategies. 2) This short-sightedness becomes acceptable to the general public or investing community.

Case examples:
1) Housing bubble of 2007ish: Here, a variety of factors led to this bubble and subsequent crash. First, lenders threw out sound loan practices (failure of part 1 above), and then many consumers jumped on board the ARM bandwagon (failure of part 2 above). Then you also had the advent of flipping. Certainly not a new concept, but many, many people took on this practice to make a quick buck. Of course, flipping is really just a huge pyramid scheme that inflates demand as people usually could not afford these second homes, and by pushing up the price and reducing supply while the home was being upgraded, this screwed-up the supply-demand curve. In many cases this was done by ignoring convectional wisdom that you do not buy a second home unless you can always afford the mortgage payment (failure of part 1). Failure of part 2, the widespread acceptance comes to us via TV shows such as Flipping Out and Flip that House.

2) Oil bubble that led to $4+ per gallon gasoline in 2008: Basically a fear driven bubble and a series of events that reduced production. Here, as we have all been told, if gas gets to $4 per gallon like it is in places like Japan and Western Europe, then demand will fall, as those countries generally use less gas per person than in the US. Again, simple supply and demand economics were ignored by investors looking to profit by the rising price of crude, as alternatives become more feasible as do more expensive production techniques/processes for harvesting more oil this will take hold and lower demand. We have always been told that expensive gas is the cure for US dependence on foreign oil. As to part 2, when T. Boone Pickens jumps on the bandwagon of oil going to be super expensive, then I think that qualifies as becoming acceptable to the investing community.

3) Dot.com Bubble of 2000: Greed drives stock prices through the roof, only to plummet once people figure out that companies spending $10 million a year but bringing in only $5 million will not actually last that long. Here, the main conventional wisdom was that you don't do IPOs for companies that don't make money, and you don't invest with companies that have not figured out how to even generate revenues to pay bills. Sure, a few companies like Amazon were able to grow big enough and eventually become profitable, but companies like HomeGrocer.com and many others never panned out. These companies had spent lavishly on IT equipment and computers and tech in general, which also created a bubble in those industries as the growth could simply not be sustained once everything fizzled out. To recap, part 1 comes from people looking for huge stock gains via purely growth instead of looking things like ROI or P/E. Part 2 comes from everyone and their mother jumping into the stock market to try and cash in on the next big thing.

So that's it. In essence, bubbles are really big pyramid schemes. You will do fine if you got in early enough, but get burned if you get in too late. And in the end, most everyone gets burned either directly or indirectly when the bubble bursts and recession ensues.

Bumper Stickers

2009-04-09T10:13:00.001-07:00

Anything worth saying is worth saying with a bumber sticker.
I learned everything I need to know from a bumper sticker.

2009-01-22T13:33:00.000-08:00

OK, I've got the solution to the economy. We cash in on Obamamania! We sell t-shirts, signed pictures, toast that looks like him, etc. Anything related to the inauguration. This should generate a bunch of revenue for folks like eBay and Amazon as well as small time websites making bumper stickers.

Of course, if it takes off we might end up with an Obamabubble. The banks will move in and started offering adjustable rate loans and no income check loans to help people finance their Obama merchandise purchases. Uou'll get people coming in buying stuff up to just flip and artificially inflate the price. Then we'll have top find a new bubble, maybe green energy can be next.

2008-08-24T23:42:00.000-07:00

Another longtime since I've posted, but I have good excuses. First, time for year three of law school, and law school finds a way to keep you busy. Plus, since the last post, I've become a dad to one Ayaka Tiffany Stevens back in June, and I am now an editor for Willamette Law Online. I was just a writer, but now I keep busy doing both. Plus I live in Wilsonville, but on the other side of I-5 in the incomplete Villebois development. Hopefully, only one more year in the city, and then back to Hillsboro. I also hope to add some good rants here in the future, as well as my ideas for making society better, which both normally involve the elimination of morons.

2008-03-06T00:39:00.000-08:00

Its been awhile...

Too busy with law school to keep this up-to-date. But its almost Spring and I feel like returning to form, physically and Internet. Though, I'm sure it will not last with too many commitments and only 24 hours a day.

2006-11-29T16:04:00.000-08:00

My Grief Over OGI

I recently learned of OHSU's plan to move their OGI school from Washington County to their new South Waterfront campus in Portland. This triggered the 5 Stages of Grief.
First, I thought that this could not be happening. How could this be true? So I checked out OHSU's web site and sure enough, there was the plan complete with the goal of quickly selling off the campus.
Stage 2. This news made me very angry with OHSU as they are abandoning Washington County where over 250,000 patient visits come from and nearly 500 of their students come from. To me they just want the revenue from the county residents without giving back. Sure they have medical facilities, but those just bring in more revenue, and the jobs would just be filled by another provider like Providence, Legacy, or Tuality Healthcare if OHSU did not have those facilities. That is not acceptable from a pseudo state entity that receives tax dollars. The private companies take revenue, but not tax dollars (of course they do through Medicare and the like, but not directly).
Bargaining. At first I thought maybe they would keep some facilities at the Hillsboro campus, but then I read about their desire to sell the property, enter Stage Four, depression.
Why OHSU, why? Not only is the county losing the educational opportunities needed to continue moving the economy along, but we are also suffering the economic loss of family wage jobs of the teaching faculty and even the classified staff and administration. Sure, some will keep their jobs, but then they will need to commute to Portland, adding more traffic to the Sunset or on MAX.
Stage Five is Acceptance. I'm not there yet, but I can get there by the State of Oregon doing right to the citizens of Washington County. You see, Washington County is the second most populous county in the state and will probably be number one by 2020. Yet the county contains not a single state university. How's that for taking but not giving back? So I propose that the state and the Board of Higher Education step in and make things right. Now, still let OHSU move, but create a new university at the old campus. I'm thinking OSU-Tuality or better yet Northern Oregon University to round out the state directional schools. We have seven years to decide on a name, and better yet seven years to get the financing arranged, any new construction completed, and get the fundraising started. We would need to accept reality and see if we could raise funds by selling off the naming rights, but this way we can entice the local CEOs and companies to give back to the communities they reside in. I can see it now, the Nike School of Business, the Boyle School of Design, the Tektronix School of Electrical Engineering, the McMenimens' School of Hospitality, and the Teuful School of Landscape Architecture. There are dozens more possibilities, and the school should have a strong service sector focus for the emerging economy. But whether you agree with what the school should be named or its focus, wee should all agree that a state university in Washington County is long overdue, and this is the perfect situation to rectify that blemish on the State of Oregon's record. Therefor I call on all the local government officials and state & federal representatives from the area to make this a top priority at the next legislative session. And to the Board of Higher Education, stop OHSU from selling the property and have it transferred back to the state where it belongs.
I you feel as I do, mail this to your government officials.

Thanks.

2006-10-28T17:08:00.000-07:00

SPAM Stock Tips

Dear SPAMers,

Thank you so much for your recent stock tips for such companies as SBNS, AUNI, TGVI.PK, VSPC, and my all-time favorite MTPT. I always take lots of time to read through each and everyone. I also enjoy how you try to surprise me with new subjects each time, it is a wonderful surprise each time I open up my email and get a well researched investment offer.
I also love how they are not traded on the usual stock markets like the NYSE, NASDAQ, or AMEX. This way I know they are bargains that only I am privy to, because I know you wouldn’t give these tips to everyone.
Additionally, it is so wonderful that these picks are affordable to everyone. Who doesn’t want stocks that cost less that a dollar? You could almost buy up an entire company’s outstanding stocks with a few hundred dollars and then act like Richard Gere’s character in Pretty Woman and sell off the company piece-by-piece and lose most of your investment. But that’s OK, because losing money is always fun, just ask the former shareholders of Enron.
So please, keep those great stock picks coming.

PS Do you seriously think anybody buys these stocks because of these emails?

2006-08-22T18:56:00.000-07:00

Michael’s Guide to Management

Success is built one day at a time.
That means focus on getting your goals for the day done, and the long term goals will take care of themselves. If you focus on three weeks from now, you lose focus about the tasks you are working on now. You then fall behind on those tasks. Falling behind today will then compound itself till three weeks from now you will still be working on what you are today and wondering why it is taking so long. Focus on the target, not the reward.

The good, the bad and the ugly.
It’s the feedback stupid. More on this later, but my point now is reward your people with positive feedback when they do a good job. Small words of encouragement go a long way. Like in the story of The Ugly Duckling, if you are only told you are a poor performer, then you will begin to believe it too. Still correct employees when they make a mistake, but try to point out the good things as well.

Hypocrisy is management's worst enemy.
Nothing breeds more discontent than hypocrisy from management. If you expect your people to do a job, then you better know not only how to do that job, but be able to do it better than any of your people. You are the expert, show them.
If you want your employees to show up on time, then you show up early everyday. If you expect them to come in when they are a little sick, then you damn well better come in if you are sick. Lastly, if you expect your people to have a flexible schedule and work extra hours and days to fill business needs, then that starts with you doing the same.
It all starts and ends with you.

It is as simple as learning the art of the Mea Culpa.
We all screw up. Some people more than others, others less than most. It’s expected, and to use a tired phrase, to err is human. What separates good leaders from the shift manager at Taco Bell is the ability to not only recognize your own mistakes and shortcomings, but also apologize to those you have harmed with your mistakes. If you talk down to an employee for not taking care of something you told them to wait on, then apologize for your mistake. Do not try to shift the blame. Employees see through this and you lose any respect you may have had.
Everyone is fallible, those who recognize and apologize for their errors can become great leaders and managers.

Your people have great ideas too.
Just because someone has never had the opportunity to lead people does not mean they do not have good, valid points about being led. They have been led, and they know what they do and do not respond to. And just because they have an idea outside of their department does not make it irrelevant. Do you really think the inventor of the microwave was looking to cook left over pizza fast? Of course not, this is thinking outside of the box, and everyone can participate.

Feedback can be a bitch.
Getting feedback from your people is vitally important not only for your own growth, but just as important for you to meet their professional growth needs. If you know what they want and need, you can get those tools to them to help accomplish their goals, which meets the business goals. And they need the feedback to develop their skills to better meet the company’s needs and goals. If your office receptionist does not know how to transfer a call to a sales person’s cell phone when they are on the road, and you don’t tell them they need to know this process, then it will never happen and your business is worse off for it. Likewise, if your receptionist does not inform you that they hate when you email reminders to them even though they have never been late getting these tasks done, then you can never adapt your process to meet their needs. That is why you need to both give and solicit feedback on performance, and not just once a year when it is time for raises.

Six in one, half dozen in the other.
Basically, don’t micromanage everything. Let your people do their job, and if they get the job done, then leave them alone. It may not be exactly the way you wanted it done or in the same order, but if the end result is the same it just doesn’t matter. Now, some people do need to be micromanaged, but you still have to let them try and fail or they will never learn to do it themselves. Like the proverb says, give the man a fish and he eats for a day, teach the man to fish and he eats for a lifetime (or something along those lines). Who cares what fish they catch as long as it is caught.

Personal pet peeve.
Work is not like college. We do not all start in the fall at the same time. So it is inevitable that new people will come in only a few months before it is time for the end of year reviews and raises. People also get promotions all year long, oftentimes in the middle of a review period. From a management standpoint it is extremely difficult to judge people with just a short time in their position. However difficult it may be (I have been on both sides of this issue), you cannot short change peoples performances just because you don’t know if they can keep it up over the long haul. Or worse yet you promote someone because they were doing a spectacular job and then penalize them for not being in their new position long enough. Now, obviously performance reviews are what pay raises are based on in most companies, so there is a need for fiscal responsibility to the company. So the best solution I have come across is where you judge the performance based purely on the review period without an eye towards the raise, then prorate any raise to fit into budget. It is a far more fair and equitable approach that has virtually the same affect on the bottom line, but gives the positive re-enforcement that we all need and desire.

The bottom line.
Earning the trust and respect of the people you are in charge of leading, that is what being a leader is all about to me. And being a good leader will make you a good manager. Now, sometimes being a good manager means you promote and hire people you may not like, but if they are the best person for the job then you must make that business decision over your personal objections. You may even need to support a promotion of a subordinate to be your new manager if they are the better candidate. In the end that is what will make the company better, and will lead to future success for you.
Good manager’s keep the good employees, and that is what will boost the company’s bottom line.

2006-08-11T11:07:00.000-07:00

Phrases to Ponder

We live in our own realities. Of course this is based on my perceptions, and thus my own interpretations.

2006-08-10T22:59:00.000-07:00

My phrases to live by and contemplate:

So many mean thoughts, so little time!

So many stupid people, so few bullets.

Say what you mean, and mean what you say.

2006-05-30T11:01:00.001-07:00

R.I.P.
This month marked the broadcast of the final new episode of the one-time hit and cultural phenomenon, That 70s Show. The Emmy Award winning show that helped launch the careers of Topher Grace and Ashton Kutcher while helping to put the lingo of 70s back into the vernacular, ended its run of eight seasons on FOX. Unlike when Seinfeld went of the air to all the hoopla and hype, this end of an era just feels a bit more sad. Of course it will live on in reruns from now until eternity, but when it died a little bit of us died too. Much like losing a friend or our innocence.
You see, to me, That 70s Show is much like The Brady Bunch and Happy Days were to the kids growing up in the 70s. These shows are all about growing up. Seinfeld was hilarious and a cultural watermark of the 90s, but it was a self-proclaimed story about nothing. Not a show about first loves, friendship, and learning about being an adult. On Seinfeld we learned to be masters of our domain, not to use butter as a suntan lotion, shrinkage, and yadda yadda yadda. Hilarious, but nothing you grow close to the way you could with the gang from Point Place.
On a side note, there is even a connection between Happy Days and That 70s Show, both are set in Wisconsin. I’m not sure why both are set there, but my guess is that whole Midwest wholesomeness crap, which was played out in Happy Days and assaulted in That 70s Show.
Though I came to the show late (regular viewer the last three seasons) I came to love the characters and their antics. I’ve always had a thing against the 70s, but after watching the show a few times I realized that the show is not really about the 70s, but about this group of kids trying to grow up. And at first, like all of us, they want to grow up fast and become adults so they can escape their parents’ oppression. They want to be able to drive, not be told what to do, drink, and just have fun. But as time goes by they get there, and its not as much fun as you think it will be. Instead it can be heartbreaking and anything but fun. Then over time to come to the realization that you don’t want to grow up because now everything goes by so quickly. As a kid you scoffed at that idea with the school year seeming to last forever, but now the years go by so quickly that it seems like we just had a Presidential Election. I think I’ve figured it out, and that it is perspective. As a kid your perspective is a much smaller amount of time, so that the three-hour road trip is a far larger percentage of a six-year olds time than a 25 year olds time. A six year old has lived for 52596 hours, but a 25 year old has lived for 219,150 hours so three hours is a much more significant block of time for the six-year old. But enough theories.
So we watch Eric, Hyde, Jackie, Donna, Kelso, and Fez grow up and become young adults and reminisce about how we grew up, even though for most people we grew up in a different era with just as bad music, clothing, and hairstyles. We were watching a mirror, though often a smoky mirror in the basement. It was usually funny, but always entertaining.
Therefore I say, Rest In Peace my friend. May the 80s be kind to all of you. Farewell.

2006-05-17T11:05:00.000-07:00

The Immigration Debate
OK folks, whether you support the illegal immigrants or not, please, stop using the pathetic arguments concerning the European immigrants who came over and started Jamestown or came over on the Mayflower. Did they come over illegally? Maybe, but that’s a different story. You see, that was 400 years ago (give or take a few years), back when we rode horses around, died when we were 50 years old of some disease like mumps, and you were lucky if you got to bathe weekly. Perfume was invented for a reason, not just for dates.
You see, times have changed. We all used to be hunter-gatherers, peed in the same streams we drank from, grunted to each other, and lived in caves. Now we don’t generally do that. Though actually some people do still live in caves and grunt and whatnot (and if we believe the GEICO commercial there are still cavemen), but enough about Arkansas. For the most part we only do these things for recreation and instead live in climate-controlled buildings, drive in our climate-controlled cars, pick up our dry cleaning and latte, then drive to work, and then work in our climate-controlled offices.
In the United States we have been trying to limit immigration for more than a century, whether that be anti-Asian immigration from the 19th century or limits on Southern European immigration at the turn of the 20th century. We even turned away Jews before World War II took off. So, before you argue that there didn’t used to be illegal immigration, just remember that there didn’t used to be nuclear weapons, dirty bombs, automobiles, AIDS, free speech, human rights, computers, skyscrapers, iPods, TV, radio, HDTV, broadband, telephones, teeth whitening, modern medicine, metal boats, or Britney Spears.
Now, most of the illegal immigrants are Hispanic, but it’s not really an ethnic thing. Remember 9/11? How many of the terrorists were illegal immigrants? They may have entered the country legally, but if they stayed past their visa, then they are illegal. And there are plenty more people here that way. We even have illegal Canadian immigrants, and I say kick there maple leaf asses back to the land of hockey!
In the end, it isn’t about race, or history. It is about laws. And we are a country with a great tradition of laws that everyone likes to espouse. Whether we champion the 1st Amendment, the Endangered Species Act, or the 19th Amendment (women’s suffrage) we all are saying that we have laws and we expect people to abide by those laws. Otherwise, what’s the point?
And for our elected officials, please remember one very important, crucial thing about the illegal immigrants: They can’t vote! I can!

2006-05-05T15:11:00.000-07:00

Cactus Club Cafe
Ate here on my honeymoon. Great food and good drinks too.
We dined at the location on Robson Street in Vancouver, BC.

2006-05-05T11:03:00.000-07:00

Greetings movie fans.
After almost three years of inactivity, About-Movies.com is back.
Slowly we will be adding some more content, but until then we hope you find the old reviews useful.

Thanks for stopping by,
Mike